Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.293570 14.072877 15.989587 18.204148 20.688520 23.385697 26.531630
2025-06-01 9.640701 12.043047 14.831826 18.293504 22.459069 27.293185 33.309807
2025-06-08 8.129430 10.748273 13.938472 18.083115 23.294640 29.597082 37.758529
2025-06-15 7.126521 9.912425 13.454470 18.244300 24.501821 32.342726 42.846194
2025-06-22 6.504094 9.449056 13.332529 18.765034 26.093332 35.551092 48.579634
2025-06-29 5.743126 8.699554 12.736471 18.567892 26.675026 37.430300 52.635463
2025-07-06 4.893007 7.723455 11.722776 17.683271 26.214665 37.836018 54.676947
2025-07-13 4.561636 7.458484 11.672465 18.120956 27.579185 40.750390 60.232959
2025-07-20 4.246259 7.180585 11.568965 18.454243 28.787934 43.478237 65.626901
2025-07-27 3.872061 6.771384 11.228319 18.395763 29.398326 45.357687 69.870581
2025-08-03 3.505560 6.336662 10.807753 18.173026 29.729331 46.820843 73.545108
2025-08-10 3.228896 6.021847 10.546079 18.168504 30.374214 48.753960 77.969111
2025-08-17 3.010532 5.791494 10.410778 18.367468 31.364658 51.282201 83.450889
2025-08-24 2.772382 5.504007 10.157944 18.354730 32.013563 53.313610 88.264185
2025-08-31 2.532133 5.187429 9.826759 18.179424 32.373221 54.888749 92.408345
2025-09-07 2.369133 4.996819 9.695927 18.328714 33.263366 57.325122 97.986351
2025-09-14 2.278289 4.933772 9.783465 18.856158 34.805429 60.860682 105.442140
2025-09-21 2.090125 4.662764 9.473176 18.656572 35.090451 62.352537 109.643877
2025-09-28 1.828924 4.219007 8.807846 17.768706 34.124777 61.722491 110.326509
2025-10-05 1.759066 4.161268 8.865588 18.208083 35.512795 65.079768 117.735904
2025-10-12 1.681273 4.079147 8.869062 18.542867 36.724514 68.178390 124.815642
2025-10-19 1.565122 3.902804 8.673489 18.484112 37.212959 70.045896 129.863386
2025-10-26 1.441377 3.697148 8.402929 18.260428 37.380124 71.352040 133.982739